What is the next BoC rate decision?
The Bank of Canada is expected to hold interest rates steady at its December 9, 2026 meeting. This is currently the most likely outcome.
BoC Rate Decision · July 2025
Hold
Rates stayed the same
We predicted Hold 1 week before
How the odds moved before the decision
A month before the decision, Hold was the favorite at 63%. It stayed the favorite, and was at 98% the day before.
| Outcome | 1 month before | 1 week before | 1 day before |
|---|---|---|---|
| HoldResult | 63% | 96% | 98% |
| Cut 25 bps | 32% | 2% | 2% |
| Cut 50+ bps | 1% | 0% | 0% |
How accurate are these forecasts?
Based on previous data, the accuracy is:
The previous decisions were:
- Jul 30, 2025 · Hold
- Oct 29, 2025 · Cut 25 bps
- Dec 10, 2025 · Hold
- Jan 28, 2026 · Hold
- Mar 18, 2026 · Hold
- Apr 29, 2026 · Hold
- Jun 10, 2026 · Hold
- Jul 15, 2026 · Hold
- Sep 2, 2026 · Hold
- Oct 28, 2026 · Hike 25 bpsMarket expected Hold 1 month before
↓ Cut= Hold↑ Hike
1 month before, the market got 1 of 10 meetings wrong.
What is the current BoC interest rate?
The Bank of Canada's policy interest rate is 2.50%, as of November 3, 2026.
When is the next BoC meeting?
The next Bank of Canada interest rate announcement is December 9, 2026. The interest rate decision is announced at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, December 9, 2026, followed by the Governor's press conference 45 minutes later.
Which Bank of Canada interest rate does this forecast refer to?
The target for the overnight rate, the Bank of Canada's policy interest rate.