What is the next BoJ rate decision?
The Bank of Japan is expected to hold interest rates steady at its October 29-30, 2026 meeting. This is currently the most likely outcome.
BoJ Rate Decision
Hold
Rates stayed the same
We predicted Hold the day before
How accurate are these forecasts?
Based on previous data, the accuracy is:
The 8 previous decisions were:
- Oct 29-30, 2025 · HoldMarket expected Hike 25 bps 1 month before
- Dec 18-19, 2025 · Hike 25 bpsMarket expected Hold 1 month before
- Jan 22-23, 2026 · Hold
- Mar 18-19, 2026 · Hold
- Apr 27-28, 2026 · HoldMarket expected Hike 25 bps 1 month before
- Jun 15-16, 2026 · Hike 25 bps
- Jul 30-31, 2026 · Hold
- Sep 17-18, 2026 · Hike 25 bps
↓ Cut= Hold↑ Hike
1 month before, the market got 3 of 8 meetings wrong.
When is the next BoJ meeting?
The next Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM) is October 29-30, 2026. The interest rate decision is usually announced around 12:00 p.m. Tokyo time on Friday, October 30, 2026, when the meeting ends (the Bank of Japan sets no fixed time), followed by the Governor's press conference in the afternoon.
Which Bank of Japan interest rate does this forecast refer to?
The short-term policy interest rate, the Bank of Japan's target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate. The Bank of Japan sometimes moves it by less than 25 basis points; the forecast counts a move such as 10 or 15 basis points as 25 basis points.