What is the next ECB rate decision?
The European Central Bank is expected to hold interest rates steady at its October 28-29, 2026 meeting. This is currently the most likely outcome.
ECB Rate Decision
Hike 25 bps
Rates went up
We predicted Hike 25 bps the day before
How accurate are these forecasts?
Based on previous data, the accuracy is:
The 15 previous decisions were:
- Dec 11-12, 2024 · Cut 25 bps
- Jan 29-30, 2025 · Cut 25 bps
- Mar 5-6, 2025 · Cut 25 bps
- Apr 16-17, 2025 · Cut 25 bpsMarket expected Hold 1 month before
- Jun 3-5, 2025 · Cut 25 bps
- Jul 23-24, 2025 · Hold
- Sep 10-11, 2025 · Hold
- Oct 29-30, 2025 · Hold
- Dec 17-18, 2025 · Hold
- Feb 4-5, 2026 · Hold
- Mar 18-19, 2026 · Hold
- Apr 29-30, 2026 · Hold
- Jun 10-11, 2026 · Hike 25 bps
- Jul 22-23, 2026 · Hold
- Sep 9-10, 2026 · Hike 25 bps
↓ Cut= Hold↑ Hike
1 month before, the market got 1 of 14 meetings wrong.
When is the next ECB meeting?
The next monetary policy meeting of the ECB Governing Council is October 28-29, 2026. The interest rate decision is announced at 2:15 p.m. Frankfurt time on Thursday, October 29, 2026, followed by the ECB President's press conference half an hour later.
Which ECB interest rate does this forecast refer to?
The deposit facility rate, the ECB's main policy rate. It is one of three key ECB rates, alongside the main refinancing operations rate and the marginal lending facility rate. The three usually move together, but not always: in September 2024 the ECB cut the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points and the other two by 60 basis points.