What is the next Fed rate decision?
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its December 8-9, 2026 meeting. This is currently the most likely outcome.
Fed Rate Decision · September 2024
Cut 50+ bps
Rates went down
We predicted Cut 25 bps 1 week before: we missed this one
How the odds moved before the decision
A month before the decision, Cut 25 bps was the favorite at 80%. Cut 50+ bps took the lead on September 16, 2024, 2 days before the decision, and was at 59% the day before.
| Outcome | 1 month before | 1 week before | 1 day before |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cut 50+ bpsResult | 14% | 24% | 59% |
| Cut 25 bps | 80% | 75% | 40% |
| Hold | 7% | 3% | 2% |
How accurate are these forecasts?
Based on previous data, the accuracy is:
The previous decisions were:
- Jan 28-29, 2025 · Hold
- Mar 18-19, 2025 · Hold
- May 6-7, 2025 · Hold
- Jun 17-18, 2025 · Hold
- Jul 29-30, 2025 · Hold
- Sep 16-17, 2025 · Cut 25 bps
- Oct 28-29, 2025 · Cut 25 bps
- Dec 9-10, 2025 · Cut 25 bps
- Jan 27-28, 2026 · Hold
- Mar 17-18, 2026 · Hold
- Apr 28-29, 2026 · Hold
- Jun 16-17, 2026 · Hold
- Jul 28-29, 2026 · Hold
- Sep 15-16, 2026 · Hike 25 bpsMarket expected Hold 1 month before
- Oct 27-28, 2026 · HoldMarket expected Hike 25 bps 1 month before
↓ Cut= Hold↑ Hike
1 month before, the market got 2 of 15 meetings wrong.
What is the current Fed interest rate?
The Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate is 3.75% to 4.00%, as of November 3, 2026.
When is the next FOMC meeting?
The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is December 8-9, 2026. The interest rate decision is announced at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 9, 2026, followed by the Fed Chair's press conference.