Next Rate Decision
FOMC meeting · Oct 28-29, 2025

Fed Rate Decision

Cut 25 bps

Rates went down

We predicted Cut 25 bps the day before

How accurate are these forecasts?

Based on previous data, the accuracy is:

The 15 previous decisions were:

  1. Jan 28-29, 2025 · Hold
  2. Mar 18-19, 2025 · Hold
  3. May 6-7, 2025 · Hold
  4. Jun 17-18, 2025 · Hold
  5. Jul 29-30, 2025 · Hold
  6. Sep 16-17, 2025 · Cut 25 bps
  7. Oct 28-29, 2025 · Cut 25 bps
  8. Dec 9-10, 2025 · Cut 25 bps
  9. Jan 27-28, 2026 · Hold
  10. Mar 17-18, 2026 · Hold
  11. Apr 28-29, 2026 · Hold
  12. Jun 16-17, 2026 · Hold
  13. Jul 28-29, 2026 · Hold
  14. Sep 15-16, 2026 · Hike 25 bpsMarket expected Hold 1 month before
  15. Oct 27-28, 2026 · HoldMarket expected Hike 25 bps 1 month before
↓ Cut= Hold↑ Hike

1 month before, the market got 2 of 15 meetings wrong.

What is the next Fed rate decision?

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its December 8-9, 2026 meeting. This is currently the most likely outcome.

When is the next FOMC meeting?

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is December 8-9, 2026. The interest rate decision is announced at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 9, 2026, followed by the Fed Chair's press conference.