What is the next RBA rate decision?
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold interest rates steady at its December 7-8, 2026 meeting. This is currently the most likely outcome.
RBA Rate Decision · November 2026
Hike 25 bps
Rates went up
We predicted Hike 25 bps 1 week before
How the odds moved before the decision
A month before the decision, Hold was the favorite at 85%. Hike 25 bps took the lead on October 23, 2026, 11 days before the decision, and was at 92% the day before.
| Outcome | 1 month before | 1 week before | 1 day before |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25 bpsResult | 16% | 67% | 92% |
| Hold | 85% | 31% | 8% |
How accurate are these forecasts?
Based on previous data, the accuracy is:
The 7 previous decisions were:
- Feb 2-3, 2026 · HikeMarket expected Hold 1 month before
- Mar 16-17, 2026 · HikeMarket expected Hold 1 month before
- May 4-5, 2026 · Hike
- Jun 15-16, 2026 · Hold
- Aug 10-11, 2026 · Hold
- Sep 28-29, 2026 · Hike 25 bpsMarket expected Hold 1 month before
- Nov 2-3, 2026 · Hike 25 bpsMarket expected Hold 1 month before
↓ Cut= Hold↑ Hike
1 month before, the market got 4 of 7 meetings wrong.
What is the current RBA interest rate?
The Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate target has been 4.85% since November 4, 2026.
When is the next RBA meeting?
The next Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board meeting is December 7-8, 2026. The interest rate decision is announced at 2:30 p.m. Sydney time on Tuesday, December 8, 2026, followed by the Governor's press conference an hour later.
Which RBA interest rate does this forecast refer to?
The cash rate target, the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy rate.