What is the next BoJ rate decision?
The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its December 17-18, 2026 meeting. This is currently the most likely outcome.
BoJ Rate Decision · October 2026
Hold
Rates stayed the same
We predicted Hold 1 week before
How the odds moved before the decision
A month before the decision, Hold was the favorite at 71%. It stayed the favorite, and was at 98% the day before.
| Outcome | 1 month before | 1 week before | 1 day before |
|---|---|---|---|
| HoldResult | 78% | 97% | 98% |
| Hike 25 bps | 22% | 2% | 1% |
How accurate are these forecasts?
Based on previous data, the accuracy is:
The 9 previous decisions were:
- Oct 29-30, 2025 · HoldMarket expected Hike 25 bps 1 month before
- Dec 18-19, 2025 · Hike 25 bpsMarket expected Hold 1 month before
- Jan 22-23, 2026 · Hold
- Mar 18-19, 2026 · Hold
- Apr 27-28, 2026 · HoldMarket expected Hike 25 bps 1 month before
- Jun 15-16, 2026 · Hike 25 bps
- Jul 30-31, 2026 · Hold
- Sep 17-18, 2026 · Hike 25 bps
- Oct 29-30, 2026 · Hold
↓ Cut= Hold↑ Hike
1 month before, the market got 3 of 9 meetings wrong.
What is the current BoJ interest rate?
The Bank of Japan's short-term policy interest rate is around 1.25%.
When is the next BoJ meeting?
The next Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM) is December 17-18, 2026. The interest rate decision is usually announced around 12:00 p.m. Tokyo time on Friday, December 18, 2026, when the meeting ends (the Bank of Japan sets no fixed time), followed by the Governor's press conference in the afternoon.
Which Bank of Japan interest rate does this forecast refer to?
The short-term policy interest rate, the Bank of Japan's target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate. The Bank of Japan sometimes moves it by less than 25 basis points; the forecast counts a move such as 10 or 15 basis points as 25 basis points.