What is the next ECB rate decision?
The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its December 16-17, 2026 meeting. This is currently the most likely outcome.
ECB Rate Decision · October 2026
Hold
Rates stayed the same
We predicted Hold 1 week before
How the odds moved before the decision
A month before the decision, Hold was the favorite at 77%. It stayed the favorite, and was at 99% the day before.
| Outcome | 1 month before | 1 week before | 1 day before |
|---|---|---|---|
| HoldResult | 77% | 97% | 99% |
| Hike 25 bps | 24% | 3% | 1% |
How accurate are these forecasts?
Based on previous data, the accuracy is:
The 15 previous decisions were:
- Jan 29-30, 2025 · Cut 25 bps
- Mar 5-6, 2025 · Cut 25 bps
- Apr 16-17, 2025 · Cut 25 bpsMarket expected Hold 1 month before
- Jun 3-5, 2025 · Cut 25 bps
- Jul 23-24, 2025 · Hold
- Sep 10-11, 2025 · Hold
- Oct 29-30, 2025 · Hold
- Dec 17-18, 2025 · Hold
- Feb 4-5, 2026 · Hold
- Mar 18-19, 2026 · Hold
- Apr 29-30, 2026 · Hold
- Jun 10-11, 2026 · Hike 25 bps
- Jul 22-23, 2026 · Hold
- Sep 9-10, 2026 · Hike 25 bps
- Oct 28-29, 2026 · Hold
↓ Cut= Hold↑ Hike
1 month before, the market got 1 of 14 meetings wrong.
What is the current ECB interest rate?
The European Central Bank's deposit facility rate is 2.50%, as of November 4, 2026.
When is the next ECB meeting?
The next monetary policy meeting of the ECB Governing Council is December 16-17, 2026. The interest rate decision is announced at 2:15 p.m. Frankfurt time on Thursday, December 17, 2026, followed by the ECB President's press conference half an hour later.
Which ECB interest rate does this forecast refer to?
The deposit facility rate, the ECB's main policy rate. It is one of three key ECB rates, alongside the main refinancing operations rate and the marginal lending facility rate. The three usually move together, but not always: in September 2024 the ECB cut the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points and the other two by 60 basis points.